What is MCM?
MCM is an experimental observation tool. It is untested and should not be used by itself to make investment decisions. The goal is to test a thesis: macro panic selling can lead to short‑term opportunities. The dashboard is designed to observe behavior, not predict prices.
The Thesis We Are Testing
When uncertainty rises suddenly (policy surprises, tariff developments, rates shocks), markets often sell broadly before the economic impact is understood. If the underlying economy has not materially changed, larger investors may begin buying after the initial shock, leading to stabilization and partial recovery over the following days.
Why we separate RTH and ETH
ETH (Extended Hours) is reaction‑heavy and low‑liquidity. RTH (Regular Trading Hours, 9:30–4:00 ET) is decision‑heavy and dominated by large institutions. A reversal that happens only in ETH is fragile. A reversal that happens in RTH is more meaningful.
Why we measure intraday highs
Reversals often show up first as a reclaim during the session, not as a positive close. The intraday high can reveal whether buyers intervened—even if the close is noisy.
The Three Opening Scenarios
1) Gap Down Open (often the best reversal setup)
- Overnight sellers acted; institutions respond after the open.
- Confirmation: early dip stalls, then price reclaims baseline during RTH.
2) Flat Open (often bullish after shock)
- News has been processed; higher probability of stabilization.
- Confirmation: multiple RTH tiles turn green by intraday high.
3) Gap Up Open (can be a trap)
- After big down days, gap‑ups can be short covering rather than real demand.
- Warning: early strength fades and never reclaims baseline in RTH.
Expected Recovery Sequence (Macro Panic Event)
If the selloff is primarily fear‑driven, recoveries may occur in a recognizable sequence:
- Liquidity leaders (MSFT‑type)
- Enterprise software / platforms (CRM)
- Financials (JPM)
- Consumer & credit‑sensitive (AXP, NKE)
What would support vs challenge the thesis?
Supports
- Multiple confirmations during RTH (not only ETH)
- Leaders confirm early; breadth improves over 1–3 days
Challenges
- Few/no RTH confirmations
- Only overnight rebounds
- Consumer + banks fail to reclaim baseline over multiple sessions
How to use MCM (Coach mindset)
Think of MCM like radar. It doesn’t tell you what to do; it helps you recognize the environment. The goal is to identify, test, validate, and refine a targeted thesis—not to act faster.